Finance
“Costco's Q4 FY2026 EPS of $6.75 included a one-off $0.15 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, so excluding that the clean EPS was $6.60 (still a beat vs the $6.54 estimate); comparable sales of +9.4% were boosted by gasoline prices and currency, with the clean underlying comparable sales figure at +6.7%.”
Plain restatementIn its fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported diluted EPS of $6.75, which the company said included a non-recurring $0.15 per share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds; excluding that item EPS would be about $6.60, above a consensus estimate of roughly $6.54. Reported total company comparable sales were +9.4%, and the figure adjusted for gasoline prices and foreign exchange was +6.7%.
This checks out. Costco's own results release, filed with the SEC on 24 September 2026 for the 16-week quarter ended 30 August 2026, reports diluted earnings of $6.75 per share and states in the company's own words that the quarter included a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per share from IEEPA tariff refunds, less partial reinvestment of those refunds into member value. Removing that item leaves about $6.60, which is above the consensus estimates in circulation for the quarter, reported variously between $6.48 and $6.55, with $6.54 being the FactSet figure cited by the Wall Street Journal. The release also shows total comparable sales of 9.4 percent and 6.7 percent after excluding changes in gasoline prices and currency, which is exactly the pair the post quotes. Two small cautions: the $0.15 is already net of the price reinvestments Costco funded with the refund, so $6.60 is not a fully normalized number, and the company does not break out how much of the comparable sales gap came from fuel versus currency. Costco's finance chief also said the $184 million received so far is a little over one third of what the company expects to collect, so more refunds may follow. All figures are as of 27 September 2026. General information only, not financial advice.
[drifted from the evidence:] Costco's Q4 FY2026 EPS of $6.75 included a [drifted from the evidence:] one-off $0.15 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, [drifted from the evidence:] so excluding that [drifted from the evidence:] the clean EPS [drifted from the evidence:] was $6.60 [drifted from the evidence:] (still a [drifted from the evidence:] beat vs the $6.54 estimate); comparable sales [drifted from the evidence:] of +9.4% were [drifted from the evidence:] boosted by gasoline prices and [drifted from the evidence:] currency, with the [drifted from the evidence:] clean underlying comparable sales figure [drifted from the evidence:] at +6.7%.
[added by the neutral restatement:] In its fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported diluted EPS of $6.75, [added by the neutral restatement:] which the company said included a [added by the neutral restatement:] non-recurring $0.15 [added by the neutral restatement:] per share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds; excluding that [added by the neutral restatement:] item EPS [added by the neutral restatement:] would be about $6.60, [added by the neutral restatement:] above a [added by the neutral restatement:] consensus estimate [added by the neutral restatement:] of roughly $6.54. Reported total company comparable sales were [added by the neutral restatement:] +9.4%, and the figure [added by the neutral restatement:] adjusted for gasoline prices and foreign exchange was +6.7%.
Red-tinted words in the claim drifted from the evidence. Green-tinted words are what a neutral restatement needs.
The trace / claim to source
- Costco's release for the 16-week quarter ended 30 August 2026 reports diluted EPS of $6.75, as stated in the filing dated 24 September 2026.
- The release itself attributes a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per diluted share in that quarter to IEEPA tariff refunds received in the quarter, less partial reinvestment of those refunds in increased member values.
- Subtracting that $0.15 gives about $6.60, which is the ex-item figure reported by outlets covering the quarter, and it exceeds the consensus estimates in circulation for that quarter ($6.48 to $6.55).
- The $6.54 estimate cited matches the FactSet consensus reported by the Wall Street Journal for this quarter.
- Total company comparable sales for the quarter were +9.4 percent, and the company's adjusted figure, which excludes the impacts of changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, was +6.7 percent, both as printed in the release.
- Describing +6.7 percent as the underlying figure matches Costco's own adjustment footnote, so the gap of about 2.7 percentage points is attributable to gasoline prices and currency combined.
- No material distortion identified. The three load-bearing numbers, the $0.15 refund item, the $6.60 ex-item EPS and the +9.4 versus +6.7 percent comparable sales pair, all match the company's own filed release for the period, and the quarter and its dates are identified correctly.
- One point of precision rather than distortion: the company describes the $0.15 as already net of partial reinvestment of the refunds into member value, so $6.60 is EPS with a net item removed and not a figure that also reverses the price investments Costco funded with the refund money. The claim's wording follows the company's, so this does not change its meaning, but a reader should not treat $6.60 as a fully normalized number.
- The consensus estimate is vendor-dependent. $6.54 is the FactSet number per the Wall Street Journal, while other polls for the same quarter were reported at $6.48, $6.53 and $6.55. The beat holds against all of them, but "the" estimate is not a single defined figure.
- Costco's release does not split the comparable sales adjustment between gasoline prices and foreign exchange, so the individual contribution of each to the 9.4 percent reported figure is not established from the primary source.
- The company stated the refunds received represent a little over one third of what it expects to collect, so the total eventual refund and its timing are not settled as of 2026-09-27.
Costco's own results release for the 16-week fourth quarter and 52-week fiscal year ended 30 August 2026 states that net income for the quarter was $2.998 billion, or $6.75 per diluted share, against $2.610 billion, or $5.87 per diluted share, a year earlier. The release then states verbatim: "This year's fourth quarter was positively impacted by a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per diluted share from IEEPA tariff refunds received in the quarter, less partial reinvestment of those refunds in increased member values." The same release gives total company comparable sales of 9.4 percent for the 16 weeks and an adjusted figure of 6.7 percent, with the footnote "*Excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange." Net sales for the quarter rose 11.2 percent to $93.9 billion; full-year diluted EPS was $20.76 against $18.21. On consensus, vendors differ: analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected $6.54 per share and $94.97 billion in revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal, while analysts surveyed by Zacks forecast $6.48 per share; LSEG-polled consensus was reported at $6.53 and another vendor at $6.55. The reported $6.75 clears all of these. On the size of the refund, the CFO said Costco received $184 million in tariff refunds in the fourth quarter, consisting of $174 million in refunds and $10 million in interest, and the majority was reinvested into lower prices on produce, meat, beverages, home furnishings and hardware.
Complete reasoning
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Ask this case
Answers come only from the case file above; nothing is added.
Did Costco actually beat earnings estimates in Q4 FY2026?
Yes. Costco reported diluted EPS of $6.75, and even after removing a one-off $0.15 tariff refund benefit, the $6.60 figure still exceeds the consensus estimates in circulation, which ranged from $6.48 to $6.55.
What was the $0.15 tariff refund benefit exactly?
Costco's own release says the quarter got a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per diluted share from IEEPA tariff refunds received in the quarter, after subtracting partial reinvestment of those refunds into increased member value. This means the $6.60 ex-item figure is not fully normalized, since it still reflects some of the price investments funded by the refund.
Is $6.54 the correct consensus estimate to compare against?
It is one of several reported figures. FactSet's consensus, as cited by the Wall Street Journal, was $6.54, but other vendors reported $6.48, $6.53, and $6.55, so there is no single official consensus number. Costco's $6.75 (or $6.60 ex-item) beats all of them.
What drove the difference between the 9.4% and 6.7% comparable sales figures?
Costco's release attributes the gap to the impacts of changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange combined, but it does not break out how much each factor contributed individually.
How much in tariff refunds has Costco received in total, and is more coming?
The CFO said Costco received $184 million in the fourth quarter, made up of $174 million in refunds and $10 million in interest, and stated this was a little over one third of what the company expects to collect. The total eventual amount and timing of further refunds were not established as of the case file's date.